The non-profit Hudson River Foundation sponsors monthly scientific seminars about the quality and management of the Hudson River ecosystem including the New York/New Jersey Harbor.

Dr. Phil Orton, professor at Stevens Institute of Technology spoke about modeling conducted for the New York/New Jersey Harbor to evaluate storm surge flooding during the 1821 hurricane and Hurricane Sandy, and how man-made barriers and natural systems alter flood elevations. Many of the areas with deeper flooding were former wetland areas.

A recent study extending the annual maximum storm tide in the New York/New Jersey Harbor area back to 1884 shows the height of 10-year storm tides has increased by about 72 cm (28 cm on top of the about 44 cm increase from sea level rise). Reasons for this change were postulated, including climate variability, climate change, and changes to the harbor such as loss of wetlands and deeper channels. Their modeling work set out to evaluate different approaches to reduce flooding events during hurricanes. Model outputs predict Jamaica Bay wetlands decrease local flood elevations by inches while the shallowing of deeper channels, such as the one in Jamaica Bay surrounding the wetland, reduce flood elevation by up to several feet. Placement of man-made barriers further reduced flood elevations over natural systems. But protection barriers can also multiply risk by increasing the rate water rises if the barrier is overtopped.

For more information, contact Lisa.Rosman@noaa.gov, or find out more about the Hudson River Foundation at Hudson.River.org

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